Don’t Wait for Proof

There’s always a handful of buzzwords floating around the fire service, and one of them right now is “evidence-based.” It’s a subtle way of repackaging the old “100% guaranteed” promise, selling certainty in a world where certainty doesn’t exist.

Ironically, our reliance on evidence is often what traps us in small thinking. Evidence itself has no inherent meaning. We assign the meaning.

I’ve had to declare bankruptcy—my life is over.
My wife left me—I’ll never love anyone like her again.
The union is fighting me on this—I’ll never get it through negotiations.

Mental performance teaches us that thoughts like these are predictions. And the truth is, we have no idea what the future holds. The evidence may point in a certain direction, but evidence, like the wind, changes. People change their minds. Unforeseen circumstances arise. Situations pivot. Chance intervenes.

When we lock in on current evidence, we leave no room for exceptions and for things to work out in ways we can’t yet see. That rigidity is what creates stress and hopelessness.

One of the most powerful questions you can ask yourself in these moments is:

Would I rather be right, or free, right now?

That question forces a choice. Either you bend a knee to the evidence, or you acknowledge that anything can happen…and you leave space for it. That’s where you find relief from perspectives that feel final, bleak, and doomed.

Of course, being right feels good. Our brains are wired for it. Through cognitive bias, we seek out evidence that confirms what we already believe and then we fixate on it.

But being right when the evidence looks bad feels terrible. It drains you. It erodes your mental health. In those moments, wouldn’t you rather be free? Free to choose a different perspective. Free to step back from the evidence and move toward a vision where things work out.

That’s cognitive flexibility. That’s vision, and that kind of thinking is rare.

It’s also the kind of thinking that saved Ernest Shackleton and his men from perishing in Antarctica in 1915 when their ship, the Endurance, became trapped in ice and sank. Those 28 men survived 22 brutal months in the harshest conditions on earth.

If Shackleton had based his decisions purely on the evidence, he could have said, “Well, this is over. We’re screwed, guys.” And that would’ve been the end.

Instead, he chose something else.

Remember this question because it might just save your life: Do I want to be right, or free, right now?

The evidence means what you decide it means. Interpret it in your favor or ignore it entirely because some missions require that level of thinking. Where a mere mortal may see a dead end, find yourself a window.

Ready to apply advanced mental performance strategies as a fire chief or training officer? Book a free consultation call to explore how we can work together.